Ferguson's Failures

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Neil Ferguson. Professor Lockdown. His word has been taken as gospel by SAGE, the government, and the British people, and his modelling influenced the decision to introduce lockdown back in March. 

Let's take a look at some of his other statistical works of art. 

2001 - Foot and Mouth Disease! 

  • In 2001 Ferguson and his team produced modelling that influenced culling policies, including "ring" culling - slaughtering animals in neighbouring farms despite no evidence of infection (well, they could have been asymptomatic) 
  • This move cost the UK economy an estimated £10 billion, plus the wasted slaughter of over 6 million cattle, sheep, and pigs. 
  • The modelling used was heavily criticised by experts, who claim the modelling was "severely flawed", "not fit for purpose" and made a "serious error".
  • Clearly, this heroic work deserved an OBE, awarded to Ferguson in 2002.
2002 - Mad Cow Disease! 
  • Ferguson predicted up to 50,000 deaths from BSE in the UK. Specifically, he predicted between 50 and 50,000 deaths, adding that it could rise to 150,000 if the problem increased to affect sheep as well.
  • In material terms, BSE led to the slaughter of 3.3 million cattle and an estimated economic loss of £3.7 billion.
  • Beef sales dropped 27% across the EU due to consumer fears
  • In fairness, 177 ( the number of actual deaths) is indeed between 50 and 150,000. Ah, the science. 
2005 - Bird Flu! 
  • Ferguson said that up to 200 million people could die from avian influenza. 
  • The UK government spent £200m on enough antiviral drugs for 14.6 million people 
  • The UK also purchased 2 million doses of a bird flu vaccine in 2005, then in 2006 signed a £33m contract for 3.4 million doses. 
  • Healthcare companies were asked to pitch for a contract of 120 million doses, enough for 2 doses for every person (sound familiar?) 
  • Between 2003-2009, 282 people died from bird flu worldwide. 
2009 - Swine Flu!
  • Ferguson predicted a minimum case fatality rate of 0.3%, and a maximum of 1.5%. He also predicted up to 65,000 deaths as a realistic worst case scenario 
  • UK government spent £1.01 billion on drugs and £115.4 million on face masks and respirators 
  • The UK purchased 44 million swine flu vaccines from GSK and Baxter. 4.88 doses were administered to at-risk groups, and the Department of Health said it held "just over" 20 million doses left over. It doesn't seem to matter what happened to the other 19 million.
  • Schools held assemblies to emphasise to children how much danger they were in (using glitter). Sources say that some who attended these assemblies found them very patronising and unnecessary. 
  • Swine flu killed 457 people in the UK and had a death rate of 0.026% in those infected.
2020 - Bat Flu!*

  • Ferguson threatened the government that failure to act would result in 510,000 deaths
  • The program he used was widely criticised, other experts could not replicate the results using the same model, and it was over 13 years old.
  • Government spending on coronavirus measures has reached over £372 billion and is still rising 
  • Lockdown has had a clear and devastating impact on millions of lives. 
  • Ferguson himself broke the lockdown rules multiple times just days after they were introduced - on 30th March and 8th April 2020. 
Fun Fact: As a mean, the actual death count tends to be 0.4% of Ferguson's predictions. For Covid-19 this would be 2040 deaths. 

With this track record, why was this man ever consulted? He's an absolute disaster. In any other profession a person who made this many mistakes would be fired at the very least. A doctor who was wrong this often would lose their license. A pilot who was wrong this often would be dead. 
I personally would like to see Neil Ferguson behind bars for a good long time. I've run out of mercy for people like this. 

*Disclaimer - Covid-19 is not in fact an influenza, it develops from a coronavirus, like SARS does. But "bat flu" was catchier. 

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